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Car fleet: 2 out of 3 cars will be endothermic in 2050?

The global vehicle fleet will still be full of ICE cars in the next few years, as confirmed by estimates from the Autopromotec Observatory

January 23, 2023 – 7:10 p.m.

The the car market electrification program started some time ago and, over the next few years, it is reasonable to expect a marked acceleration with a rolling stock increasingly characterized by zero emission models. Markets such as the EU have already set a date to stop sales of ICE cars and, most likely, more will follow in the future. Meanwhile, sales of zero-emission cars are steadily increasing. On the horizon, however, there is a transition to zero-emission mobility that could take longer than expected. The confirmation comes from the data of theAutopromotec Observatory based on research by analysts from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Goldman Sachs and Wood Mackenzie Group. According to survey data, in 2050 67% of the car fleet in circulation worldwide will be composed of Car ICE.

IN 2050 THE WORLD PARKING WILL STILL BE FULL OF ENDOTHERMIC CARS

The results of the development of the Autopromotec Observatory give an image of what will be the situation of fleet in circulation globally in 2050. According to published data, indeed, the transition to zero-emission mobility will take a very long time. Some countries could slow down the transformation, delaying the achievement of zero emissions. In 2050, the car fleet will be characterized by:

67% cars gas, diesel or non-rechargeable hybrids

28% cars electric or plug-in hybrids

5% cars with supply alternative (hydrogen, methane, LPG)

It is legitimate to expect substantial differences from one market to another, but it is clear that it will still take a long time to achieve the objective of a fleet of zero-emission vehicles. As already emerged from a previous report by the Autopromotec Observatory, for the future ICE cars will continue to have a significant “weight” in the market. This figure will also influence the automotive repair sector which, for many years to come, will have to deal with a largely traditional fleet of vehicles. The spread of electric cars will be gradual but not rapid.

ELECTRIC CARS WILL BECOME BEST-SELLING CARS JUST IN MANY YEARS

Over the next few decades, according to Observatory data, electric cars will become the best-selling cars in the world. The overtaking of other technologies is still far, but in 2050 predicted estimate a 56% market share for electric cars. Therefore, zero-emission models will represent the market segment with the highest sales volumes, but it will take many more years before they can achieve a percentage above 50% also in the global car fleet. In terms of sales, behind BEV cars, in 2050, we will find:

– them Car ICE with a market share of 18%

– them HEV hybrid cars with a market share of 16%

– them car plug-in hybrids PHE extension with a market share of 5%

– cars with technologies alternatives to alternative technologies (Fuel Cell, Flex Fuel) with a market share of 5%

Despite the discontinuation of gasoline and diesel sales (from 2035 in the EU with other markets that may follow), ICE cars will continue to be a market benchmark for the next few decades.

A DIFFICULT PRESENT: THE AVERAGE PARKING AGE IS STILL HIGH

The spread of electric cars is still at a minimum. Confirmation of this came from a recent ACEA report on the European market, a true benchmark for the four-wheel world in terms of the transition to zero-emission mobility. The fleet in circulation in Europe it is always far from seeing electric cars as protagonists. Indeed, the average age of cars is still very high. In EUindeed, the fleet in circulation has an average age of 12 years. This figure rises to 12.2 years considering the‘Italy. In our country there are more than 23 million cars over 10 years old.

ELECTRIC CARS IN ITALY ARE SLOWING DOWN: THE PARKING LOT IS FULL OF ICE CARS

By restricting the analysis even further to Italy, we also note the difficulties in making the fleet in circulation zero emissions. According to the latest ANFIA data (updated at the end of 2021), in Italy there are 118,000 electric cars out of more than 39 million cars. This is a percentage equal to approximately 0.3% of the total. Less than 50,000 electric cars were sold in 2022 (with a market share of 3.7%). Updating the vehicle fleet in Italy towards zero-emission mobility is therefore still a long-term project. In this sense, the 2023 automotive incentives should, at least on paper, accelerate the transformation of the sector.

Source : Sicur Auto

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