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PoliMi study: penetration of electric cars up to 30% PoliMi study: penetration of electric cars up to 30%

According to a study by PoliMi, the penetration of electric cars in the Italian fleet cannot exceed 30%. But there are geographical differences

6 July 2023 – 12:45

A new index, the E-Private Mobility Index, developed by the Polytechnic University of Milan (PoliMi) in collaboration with UnipolTech. This is an interesting monitoring tool, based on the analysis of data collected by the black boxes installed on the vehicles of Unipol customers, to understand theeffective feasibility of switching to electricity for individuals, evaluating both functionality and economic sustainability. Well, from the study, it seems to come out that only the 30% endothermic vehicles circulating in Italy can be replaced by electric car without changing the driving habits of Italians too much.


Regarding the Featureit has been taken into account that today a motorist is only ready to go electric if he has very few practical limitations, for example if he knows that he can charge the car with relative ease (perhaps because he has a house or at least a condominium wall terminal). Regarding the economic sustainabilityit was necessary to calculate the time to reach the balance costthat is, the moment when, against an initially higher expenditure because electric cars cost more on average, the investment is recovered thanks to lower management costs.


Considering these two aspects, it appeared that on average it is difficult to think that in Italy it is possible to have private electrification that can replace more than 20-30% of the current endothermic park. Perhaps more could be achieved than by multiplying incentives or imposing (as is in fact the case with the 2035 shutdown), but according to PoliMi a higher percentage it would not be functionally or economically sustainable. True and complete electrifiability will only be possible when we switch to a mobility model that is no longer private but shareusing carpooling and similar solutions.


However, it must be considered that the percentage of internal combustion engine vehicles that can effectively be replaced by electric vehicles it is not uniform on the national territory, having given a result equal to 17% in the province of Rome, 28% in the province of Brescia and 42% in the province of Bari, the three areas taken as a sample (representing the north, the center and the south) by the E-Private Mobility Index . This difference is probably the result of the different geographical extension, the services present in the area and the driving habits of the population and kilometers traveled.

Even the realization of economic break-even point varies considerably by province. Taking into account that in Italy the period equal to the average duration of ownership of a passenger car is 8 yearsand that one of the variables that most affects the economic feasibility of going electric is the charging costit has been estimated that in the province of Rome, the aforementioned 17% of electrifiable cars would be amortized in 8 years if charging had a cost of 0.2 euro per KWh (cost before the energy crisis), while if the cost increased to 0.36 euros per KWh (cost after the energy crisis), only 7% would succeed. The same percentages are 7% and 3% for Brescia, 13% and 6% for Bari.

The moral of the PoliMi study is that the rules on the Italian average cannot be applied but must be analyzed i different geographical contextsbecause everyone has their specificities.

Source : Sicur Auto


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